Seventh Annual Matilda White Riley Lecture in the Behavioral and Social Sciences | Location: Natcher Conference Center, Balcony B National Institutes of Health Bethesda, Maryland
Sponsored by the NIH Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research
Since 1960, the mortality profiles of industrialized countries have been dominated by the chronic diseases of adulthood. The intensity of these diseases reflects many factors, including scientific understanding of disease etiology, access to and performance of health care systems, levels of education and income, and individual behaviors affecting health. This paper examines mortality levels in the United States and other industrialized countries since 1960 and considers the extent to which smoking and obesity are contributors to trends, international differences, and internal disparities. Following the lead of Matilda White Riley, we adopt a life cycle approach to the analysis and stress the importance of behaviors cumulated over a lifetime. While there is considerable consensus about smoking’s effects on longevity, there is a great deal of uncertainty and contention about the effects of obesity. This paper presents new findings on the impact of obesity over the life course on mortality and concludes that obesity is a greater threat to health than is sometimes assertedand considers how declining smoking and rising obesity are likely to affect future levels of longevity in the United States.
Sign Language Interpreters will be provided. Individuals with disabilities who need reasonable accommodation to participate in this lecture should contact Ms. Dana Sampson, OBSSR/OD/NIH, 301.451.9514 and/or the Federal Relay at 1-800-877-8339.
The lecture is open to all NIH staff and the general public without prior registration. A government-issued photo-identification card is required to enter the NIH Campus. Limited public parking is available at a nominal fee. Shuttle bus service is available to NIH staff to the NIH Main Campus. The Medical Center Metro Station on the Red Line is located at the NIH.
The lecture will be video-recorded and available on the BSSR Lecture Series videocast page at http://videocast.nih.gov/PastEvents.asp?c=82. The videocast is available to NIH staff as well as to the general public. It will be archived only, meaning the videocast will be posted within one week following the lecture.
Should you have questions about the Lecture, please contact: Erica L. Spotts, Ph.D., Health Scientist Administrator, Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research, National Institutes of Health, 31 Center Drive, B1-C19, Bethesda, MD 20892-2027, 301.594.2105, email@example.com, http://obssr.od.nih.gov
Description: The effects of a job training program, Job Corps, on both employment and wages are evaluated using data from a randomized study. Principal stratification is used to address, simultaneously, the complications of noncompliance, wages that are only partially defined because of nonemployment, and unintended missing outcomes. The first two complications are of substantive interest, whereas the third is a nuisance. The objective is to find a parsimonious model that can be used to inform public policy. We conduct a likelihood-based analysis using finite mixture models estimated by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We maintain an exclusion restriction assumption for the effect of assignment on employment and wages for noncompliers, but not on missingness. We provide estimates under the “missing at random” assumption, and assess the robustness of our results to deviations from it. The plausibility of meaningful restrictions is investigated by means of scaled log-likelihood ratio statistics. Substantive conclusions include the following. For compliers, the effect on employment is negative in the short term; it becomes positive in the long term, but these effects are small at best. For always employed compliers, that is, compliers who are employed whether trained or not trained, positive effects on wages are found at all time periods. Our analysis reveals that background characteristics of individuals differ markedly across the principal strata. We found evidence that the program should have been better targeted, in the sense of being designed differently for different groups of people, and specific suggestions are offered. Previous analyses of this dataset, which did not address all complications in a principled manner, led to less nuanced conclusions about Job Corps. This is joint work with Paolo Frumento, Fabrizia Mealli, and Barbara Pacini.