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Ambiguity Attitudes and Retirement Preparedness

Principal Investigator
Olivia S. Mitchell
Kim Peijnenberg
Abstract

This project will evaluate whether and how ambiguity or uncertainty aversion influences economic decision making. Risk is different from ambiguity, where the former refers to stochastic events with known outcome probabilities, and the latter refers to stochastic events where the probabilities are unknown. Ellsberg (1961) suggested that, on average, people are averse to uncertainty, strongly preferring risks with known probabilities over those with uncertain likelihoods. The current project will measure and assess the effects of ambiguity aversion on economic decisions using a purpose-built survey module to be implemented in the nationallyrepresentative American Life Panel. Ambiguity attitudes will be elicited by varying the degree of ambiguity presented to each respondent in an internet survey, depending on how he responds to an initial set of questions. Next, this project will evaluate whether respondents who indicate they are more averse to ambiguity are also those who plan and save more for retirement, are more financially literate, invest more in their health, learn more about their future pension benefits, invest less in stocks, and otherwise protect themselves against uncertainty.

Funded By
PARC
Award Dates
July 1, 2011 - June 30, 2012

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The Population Studies Center (PSC) at the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) was founded in 1962 and stands as an international leader in research and training on the dynamic structure, organization, and health and well-being of human populations. The services that PSC provides have been funded by infrastructure grants awarded by the Population Dynamics Branch at Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) since 1978. The center and its associates are also supported by research grants and contracts awarded by federal agencies including the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation and by private foundations. Penn’s School of Arts and Sciences is the administrative home of the PSC and provides generous dedicated support to the center.

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