Estimating the Causal Effects of Managed Care in Medicare


The federal government is facing intense financial pressure as the Medicare program approaches insolvency in 2026 due to an aging population. In this project, we examine the value generated by a cornerstone Medicare program, Medicare Advantage, the private plan option that has rapidly expanded to cover over 22 million beneficiaries. Our proposed approach to estimating causal effects of MA on patient outcomes (compared to traditional Medicare fee-for-service) improves upon prior work by using a novel instrumental variable that uses predicted out-of-pocket savings from enrolling in MA to mitigate selection.

Funded By: 
Award Dates: 
July 1, 2020 - June 30, 2021